As a six-time veteran of getting struck by a car on my bike, this topic interests me greatly. I did some sniffing around and came up with some interesting statistics. These are a result of a Google Scholar search, among other resources, but I’m not going to list all the citations. I’ve spent seventeen years in public health research; you’ll just have to trust me when I say I know a sketchy source when I see one.
* You are going to get hit on an arterial – that is, on a through street with relatively higher speeds. Think Sandy Boulevard, NE 33rd Avenue, SE 52nd Avenue. Eighty percent of all bike-car accidents occur on arterials.
* You are going to get hit at an intersection – half to two-thirds of all accidents occur at intersections. However, certain features of an intersection make a difference, and car traffic volume is not one of them. Visibility, size of the intersection and traffic patterns matter more. Also, typically, you’ll be hit by a driver making a right turn in front of you. Whenever I approach an intersection with a car in a position to turn right in front of me, I watch the right front wheel; that’s the first thing that has to move for the car to make a right turn. Also, if the car is braking quickly to try to turn before I get to the intersection, the front end of the car will dip down from the braking action – another sure-fire clue. Same deal, but opposite wheel, for a car trying to turn left in front of you.
Combine just these two figures, using the high end of the intersection figure, and you are eight times more likely to get hit traveling through an intersection of an arterial than you are in the middle of a block on a side street.
* Males are nine times more likely to get hit than females. Anecdotally, I frequently see bicycle marauder couples barreling through traffic with the male in the lead and the female behind, looking very nervous. The city of Portland judges the safety of a cycling route network by the percent of riders using it who are female. In the core region of the city, which has a very mature cycling network, about half the cyclists are female. In the east outskirts of Portland, which has a much poorer network, about ninety percent of riders are male. So which comes first, the nerve to ride where there is no network or a cycling style that invites accidents? Answer: what’s the difference? When you’re hit, you’re hit. If you’re a guy, you wait one second before you try whatever you’re going to try.
* You’re going to get hit in a roundabout – one study found that bicycle accidents increased 41%(!) in an intersection when a roundabout was installed. The purpose of a roundabout is to slow car traffic down. Hah! Any cyclist knows roundabouts are insanely dangerous. They cause the cyclist to weave into the lane of parked cars, disappearing temporarily from the line of vision of the driver who is trying to get around us, then popping up suddenly at the roundabout exit. The rule of riding is always to hold a straight line if you can. And I think car drivers imagine that the width of the road remains the same through roundabouts, which it doesn’t.
* You’re going to get hit by a car going fast. Although traffic volume didn’t affect the accident rate in intersections, speed did. When auto speed exceeds 30mph, the rate of bicycle-car accidents jumps way up. The problems here are the reaction time of the driver and their belief that if they’re doing thirty or so miles per hour, there is no way a cyclist could keep up, so the mere act of passing said cyclist means they’re no longer in the picture. Give me a mild downhill on a smooth road and I can hit thirty pretty easily. I constantly check my speed in traffic not because the speed at which I’m travelling is inherently unsafe; car drivers simply don’t imagine I can go that fast, that’s what makes it the speed unsafe.
* You’re going to get hit in poor visibility. Night and deeply overcast skies come to mind, but think also of those first Spring days in Portland when the sun pops out and everyone forgets their sunglasses at home. If you’re having trouble seeing, so is everyone else.
* You’re going to get hit around a bus stop. Buses are huge vehicles, and the visibility of the driver – whose main worry is for the pedestrians waiting for the bus – can be quite poor. A bus is also one of the few vehicles that routinely pull over to the curb, sometimes quickly, as in when a rider pulls the stop signal cord at the last minute.
So then, your perfect nightmare? Being a guy riding through a high-speed roundabout in poor visibility right where a bus stop is located. They might as well measure you for hospital traction now.